blueUkraine

© Phonation
The resistance

Wishful thinking has the upper hand in the boxing to shape Western perceptions of the war in Ukraine.

Sympathy for the outnumbered and outgunned defenders of Kyiv has led to the exaggeration of Russian setbacks, misunderstanding of Russian strategy, and even baseless claims from amateur psychoanalysts that Putin has lost his mind.

A more than sober analysis shows that Russia may accept sought a knockout blow, but always had well-laid plans for follow-on assaults if its initial moves proved insufficient.

The earth has underestimated Putin earlier and those mistakes have led, in office, to this tragedy in Ukraine.

Nosotros must exist clear-eyed now that the war is underway. Nevertheless even the professionals at the Pentagon are letting sympathy cloud their judgement.

But two days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Department of Defense briefers were quick to claim that failing to take Kyiv in the opening days of the war amoun ted to a serious setback. DoD briefers implied that Russia's offensive was well behind schedule or had even failed because the upper-case letter had non fallen.

But U.South. leaders should have learned to restrain their hopes after their catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan. In one case once more, U.S. and Western officials are falling into the trap of failing to empathize the enemy and his objectives.

Map Ukraine

© Unknown
Russian invasion program

Allegedly, Putin believed that the Ukrainian government would plummet once Russian troops crossed the frontier and pushed to Kyiv, and that the operation has failed considering the Ukrainian regime remains in identify. Putin certainly hoped for a swift victory, simply he clearly was not relying on his opening salvo as the just plan for success.

Rather, the Russian military was prepared to have the country by force if a swift decapitation strike fell short. This kind of program should exist familiar to Americans who remember the 2003 invasion of Iraq. In the first hours of the state of war, the U.Due south. Air Force launched its 'shock and awe' campaign in an try to kill Saddam Hussein and other key leaders and bring down the government. Saddam survived, but the U.Due south. military was fully prepared to follow up with a basis assault.

A look at the Russian military machine offensive demonstrates there was a plan for a total-calibration invasion, which Russian federation is now executing.

Conventional, mechanized warfare is a time and resource consuming enterprise, and an performance of this scope isn't cobbled together in days.

The Russian offensive is taking place on four split fronts. On a fifth front, in eastern Ukraine, which Putin declared independent terminal week, Russian forces are tying downward Ukrainian troops that are needed elsewhere.

The majority of the Russian forces are advancing southward from Republic of belarus to Kyiv

Russian accelerate forces, including air, mobile and reconnaissance troops, take been engaged with Ukrainian troops outside of Kyiv since the kickoff of the state of war. A massive column of Russian troops, estimated at over xl miles long, is just twenty miles due north of Kyiv, and is likely assembling to environs the capital.

If Russian forces can take Kyiv and push southward to link up with forces on the Crimean front, thus splitting Ukraine in two, it would be a major blow to the Zelensky government.

What matters more than than a handful of setbacks is that Russian forces have pushed 70 miles into contested terrain in less than a week and are on the outskirts of the capital.

Ukraine map convoy

© AP

This is not a sign of a disorganized, poorly assembled, and failed offensive.

The southward push from Belarus to Kyiv is supported past some other Russian cavalcade, launched from the due east in the vicinity of Kursk.

If this cavalcade tin can link up with Russian troops near Kyiv, it will envelop Ukrainian forces in most of Chernihiv and Sumy provinces, depriving the Ukrainian military of much needed soldiers and war material needed elsewhere, and cutting off the authorities from two northern provinces.

Further east, Russian forces have launched a broad offensive aimed at Kharkiv, Ukraine's 2nd largest city, which is now nether siege.

In the s, Russian forces, supported by amphibious assaults from the Sea of Azov, have poured into Ukraine from Crimea.

On this front, Russian forces have branched out along two main axes, ane northwest along the Pivdennyi Buh River, and some other northeast along the coast and inland towards the Donbas region, which Russian federation alleged contained presently before the invasion. If Russian columns from either southern front can link up with forces further north, they would cutting off many Ukrainian troops from reinforcement — one of the 2 columns has already avant-garde roughly 160 miles.

Russian generals have ofttimes chosen to bypass towns and cities that are putting up stiff opposition and isolating them to bargain with afterward.

There are reports that Russian forces have escalated attacks on civilians, particularly in Kharkiv. At the moment, the artillery and rocket attacks in that location accept been limited, perhaps to send a message to the citizens as a warning of what may come.

Putin appears to want to have Ukraine intact, but volition not hesitate to increase the level of brutality if needed.

The systematic nature of the Russian assault is at odds with speculation that Putin has lost control of his senses. Nobody knows for sure, but Putin's actions appear to exist that of a common cold and calculating adversary. Dismissing his conclusion to invade Ukraine as a grade of madness is effectively an excuse to ignore Putin's likely motivations and future actions.

Strategically, Putin's accelerate on Ukraine began well over a decade ago, when he invaded and Balkanized Georgia by recognizing the Kremlin'southward boob regimes in the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Map Ukraine

© Unknown

In 2014, Putin occupied and annexed the strategic Ukrainian region of Crimea, which served every bit a launchpad for the current invasion. Putin paid little price for either action. The The states and Europe imposed limited sanctions simply continued to engage with him on the Iranian nuclear deal and other top bug.

Today, Putin has calculated that taking Ukraine by strength is in his and Russia's interest. He no doubt anticipated that the West would impose diplomatic and economic sanctions, which U.S. and European leaders threatened beforehand.

Putin may accept miscalculated Ukrainian resistance and the intensity of the Due west'southward opposition, but it doesn't mean he is crazy, or didn't consider the possibilities and chose to invade regardless. Information technology remains to be seen if Putin's plan will succeed or fail, simply what is clear is that in that location was a plan to invade Ukraine in force, and that plan has been executed since twenty-four hours one.

Ukrainian troops are putting upward a valiant fight facing long odds and hard conditions. Russia holds most if not all of the advantages. Information technology can, and has, attacked Ukraine from 3 different directions. The Russian military machine holds a decided reward in manpower, every bit well every bit air, naval and armor superiority. It has vast resources to draw on. While Ukraine has the support of much of the international community, which is providing weapons, Ukraine is fighting alone.

Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make united states feel meliorate but is at odds with the facts.

We cannot aid Ukraine if nosotros cannot be honest about its predicament.

About the Author:
Bill Roggio is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of FDD's Long war Journal. From 1991 to 1997, Roggio served as a signalman and infantryman in the U.Due south. Army and New Jersey National Guard